California Pending Home Sales On The Rise and Distress Sales Decline
The California Association of Realtors recently published a positive article about the California housing market. The article is about the statewide rise in pending home sales as well as the decrease in distress sales. The South Lake Tahoe real estate market is following the same trend as most of the state of California.
In October there were only 3 foreclosures and 12 short sales that had closed escrow on the South Lake Tahoe MLS. With 57 properties in South Lake Tahoe that were sold, only 26% were distress sales. In October 2010 distress sales accounted for 34% of the sales and in 2011 33% of the sales.
LOS ANGELES (Nov. 21) – California pending home sales rose both from the previous month and year in October for the first time in seven months, while the share of equity sales grew slightly, marking a four-year high, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
Pending home sales data:
C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* rose 4.3 percent from a revised 115.2 in September to 120.2 in October, based on signed contracts. Pending sales were up 3.6 percent from the 116.1 index recorded in October 2011. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, providing information on the future direction of the market.
“The strong pace of pending sales in October is a continuation of what we’ve experienced for most of 2012, with demand remaining robust across all parts of the state,” said 2013 C.A.R. President Don Faught. “Non-distressed sales – which are up nearly 50 percent from a year ago – are especially strong, while REO sales are down more than 51 percent, primarily due to a short supply of REOs. The significant increase in non-distressed sales has driven the share of equity sales to its highest level in more than four years.”
Distressed housing market data:
• The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – compared with total sales expanded slightly in October. The share of equity sales in October increased to 63.4 percent, up from 63 percent in September, the highest level since June 2008. Equity sales made up about half (49 percent) of all sales in October 2011.
• The share of REO sales statewide contracted in October, while the share of short sales essentially was unchanged. The combined share of all distressed property sales dipped to 36.6 percent in October, down from 37 percent in September and down from 51 percent in October 2011.
• Of the distressed properties, the share of short sales was 24.4 percent in October and 22.6 percent a year ago.
• The share of REO sales fell further in October, dropping from 12.3 percent in September to 11.8 percent in October and was down from 28 percent in October 2011.
• The available supply of REOs tightened in October, with the Unsold Inventory Index for REOs falling from 2.2 months in September to 1.9 months in October. The Unsold Inventory Index for short sales was 3.1 months and was 3.2 months for equity sales.
Charts:
• Closed housing sales in October by sales type (equity, distressed).
• Pending sales compared with closed sales.
• Historical trend in the share of equity sales compared with distressed sales.
• Housing supply of REOs, short sales, and equity sales in October.
• A historical trend of REO, short sale, and equity sales housing supply.
• Year to year change in sales by property type.
Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales
(Single-family)
| Type of Sale | Oct. 2011 | Sept. 2012 | Oct. 2012 |
| Equity Sales | 49.0% | 63.0% | 63.4% |
| Total Distressed Sales | 51.0% | 37.0% | 36.6% |
| REOs | 28.0% | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Short Sales | 22.6% | 24.3% | 24.4% |
| Other Distressed Sales (Not Specified) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| All Sales | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Single-family Distressed Home Sales by Select Counties
(Percent of total sales)
| County | Oct. 2011 |
Sept. 2012 | Oct. 2012 |
| Alameda | NA | 28% | 21% |
| Amador | 46% | 38% | 38% |
| Butte | 43% | 36% | 35% |
| Contra Costa | NA | 29% | 26% |
| El Dorado | 48% | 38% | 36% |
| Fresno | 61% | 51% | 48% |
| Humboldt | 28% | 28% | 20% |
| Kern | 67% | 45% | 41% |
| Kings | NA | 39% | 42% |
| Lake | 78% | 47% | 50% |
| Los Angeles | 48% | 37% | 37% |
| Madera | 89% | 60% | 55% |
| Marin | 26% | 24% | 21% |
| Mendocino | 49% | 47% | 43% |
| Merced | 58% | 46% | 47% |
| Monterey | 61% | 40% | 45% |
| Napa | 46% | 37% | 30% |
| Orange | 36% | 25% | 28% |
| Placer | 58% | 43% | 40% |
| Riverside | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Sacramento | 64% | 50% | 47% |
| San Benito | 72% | 55% | 58% |
| San Bernardino | 65% | 45% | 46% |
| San Diego | 28% | 15% | 14% |
| San Joaquin | 63% | 52% | 49% |
| San Luis Obispo | 46% | 28% | 29% |
| San Mateo | 23% | 20% | 17% |
| Santa Clara | 34% | 22% | 22% |
| Santa Cruz | 40% | 31% | 28% |
| Siskiyou | 37% | 40% | 32% |
| Solano | 72% | 59% | 62% |
| Sonoma | 51% | 37% | 29% |
| South Lake Tahoe | 31% | 33% | 25% |
| Stanislaus | 67% | 57% | 55% |
| Tehama | 49% | 49% | 43% |
| Tulare | NA | NA | 46% |
| Yolo | 61% | 51% | 45% |
| California | 51% | 37% | 37% |
**Note: C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market. A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually becomes closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.
